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Shutdown Crisis Averted... For Now.

First up, the news of a potential government shutdown that's been brewing finally came to a head this week as House Speaker McCarthy managed to avert the shutdown...at least, until November. As of October 2023, the state of the US economy appears to be relatively stable, marked by lower inflation, a healthy job market, and robust consumer spending. However, beneath this calm surface, there are several potential factors that could disrupt this stability and warrant a closer examination of the economic landscape. These include the specter of a major auto worker strike, the resumption of student loan repayments after a pandemic-related freeze, and the possibility of a government shutdown should the stop-gap spending deal expire without a new agreement.

In addition to these immediate concerns, the US economy faces several economic forces that, when considered collectively, could contribute to a recession, potentially as early as this year. These forces include the depletion of pandemic-related savings, the pressure of rising interest rates, and the recent surge in oil prices.

But, while the possibility of a recession remains on the horizon, challenging the prevailing optimism about the US economy's future, remember this: the US economy has weathered tough times before and come out on top. So there's no reason to hit the panic button here. Policymakers are well-equipped to take actions that can help stabilize things when necessary. By keeping a close eye on economic indicators and staying informed, we can adapt and make smart decisions as the situation evolves. So, stay calm, keep an ear to the ground, and trust in the resilience of the economy – it's been through ups and downs, and it will find its way through this too.

McCarthy Is No Long Speaker of the House

And since we’re on the subject: yesterday we learned, in a historic twist, the US House of Representatives gave Kevin McCarthy the boot as speaker, leaving House Republicans in quite a pickle. Now, finding a new speaker isn't a walk in the park either, as there's no standout candidate with the necessary clout to snatch the gavel. This shake-up comes after a rocky period of infighting among House GOP members and right after McCarthy played a pivotal part in dodging a government shutdown with some last-minute bargaining. 

The economic impacts of Kevin McCarthy's removal as House speaker are somewhat uncertain and may depend on the new leadership that emerges. In the short term, this political turmoil could potentially disrupt legislative efforts, including those related to the budget, taxes, and economic policies. If the House remains divided and unable to pass crucial economic legislation, it could impact issues such as government spending, infrastructure investment, and economic stimulus, which are already on uncertain ground. Meanwhile, investors and financial markets may also react to the uncertainty, potentially causing fluctuations in stock prices and market volatility. And on the other hand, the long-term economic effects will largely depend on how the new leadership handles economic challenges and their ability to promote stability and economic growth through effective policymaking. 

The Fed’s Focus on Labor 

Next up, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this week that the central bank is committed to strengthening the labor market. Powell emphasized the numerous advantages of a sustained robust labor market, such as real wage growth and initiatives aimed at reintegrating individuals into the workforce. In addition to this labor market focus, Powell underscored the pivotal role of maintaining price stability, which he described as a foundational element for the long-term health of the overall economy.

In addition, Michael Barr - the Federal Reserve Vice Chair - echoed Powell's cautious approach to interest rates, suggesting that the central bank is likely close to a sufficiently restrictive level. Barr believes the critical question now is how long these high rates need to be maintained, considering the full impact of past rate increases is yet to unfold. Remember though, recent data indicated that underlying inflation rose by just 0.1% in August, marking the slowest monthly pace since late 2020. So, as we consider these inflation projections, we might also be looking at a shrinking likelihood of additional rate hikes.

From an economic perspective, a thriving economy is characterized by businesses actively seeking skilled workers and often offering higher wages to attract and retain talent, particularly benefiting individuals at the lower end of the pay scale, especially those with limited job options. Moreover, this positive trend can trigger additional favorable developments such as government-mandated minimum wage increases, increased investments in workforce skill development, heightened awareness of income inequality, and the implementation of supportive economic policies. Over time, these factors combine to result in a larger share of wage benefits going to lower-wage workers, making it a noteworthy and beneficial economic dynamic.

How Far Off Is a 3 Day Work Week? 

According to Jamie Dimon, we're only one generation away. This week, Dimon announced that he firmly believes in the positive impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the future of how we work. He envisions AI enhancing the quality of life for future generations, potentially leading to a reduced work week of just 3.5 days instead of a full five day schedule. Who wouldn't want that? of just three-and-a-half days. Now, Dimon has consistently emphasized AI's significance within his own company (JPMorgan Chase), specifically when it comes to product development, customer engagement, productivity, and risk management.

But it's not all fun and games, because-like with any major shift in business-there are inherent risks associated with AI. On the economic front, increased automation through AI could lead to higher productivity, reduced labor costs, and potentially lower unemployment as repetitive tasks become automated. However, it also raises questions about job displacement and the need for upskilling to adapt to evolving roles.From a labor perspective, a shorter workweek might improve work-life balance and quality of life for employees. It could also influence labor market dynamics, with a potential shift towards part-time or gig work arrangements. And in the financial sector, the widespread adoption of AI in banking and finance, as advocated by Dimon, could lead to enhanced efficiency, risk management, and product innovation, that is, if you're able to look past potential concerns about data security, ethical AI use, and regulatory challenges.

So, I don't think Dimon is out to scare us with his prediction of the transformative impact of AI on the economy, labor markets, and financial services. But, discussions like this do give us a little perspective to peep into a very possible future, and identify both the potential opportunities and challenges we will need to navigate.

Office Property Is ‘Up In The Air’

And on the note of working: office prices in the US are in for a rocky ride. That's according to a Bloomberg survey, which found that out of nearly 919 experts polled, around 65% believe that the US office market is going to crash hard before any potential bounce backs. And if you're wondering about commercial real estate, a majority of those same experts said that they expect commercial real estate prices won't bottom out until at least the second half of 2024.

Now, at a glance, this outlook spells trouble for the $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate debt looming on the horizon. And refinancing probably won't come easy, especially because 25% of this debt is tied to office buildings. The Federal Reserve's tightening efforts, which push up the costs of financing, are taking a toll on commercial property values too. And on top of everything else, those would-be sellers are hesitant because they're not convinced the market has hit rock bottom yet. Hmmm....In the midst of all this, regional banks, holding about 30% of office building debt, are also under stress, making the lending landscape more challenging.

Offices are also grappling with things like tenants scaling back or opting for remote work, which doesn't seem to be the transitory pandemic stopgap we once thought. In the same survey, around 20% of respondents mentioned moving farther away from the office during the pandemic, with only 3% saying they'd rather go back to an office.

Now, you might be wondering if you should be worried? Well, it really depends on your individual circumstances. If you're heavily invested in commercial real estate or work in an industry closely tied to office properties, then you might need to be vigilant here, but for the average person, the economic implications of a downturn in office properties probably won't have an immediate impact on their financial well-being. As with anything financial, the best thing you can be is prepared. 

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